Gale Warning
Issued at: 5:00 PM TODAY , 28 July 2017
Gale Warning # 2
For: strong to gale force southwesterly winds enhanced typhoon "gorio."

Gale Warning in PDF file




Weather Advisory
As of today, there is no weather Advisory issued



Monthly Climate Assessment and Outlook

Issued: 05 July 2017

Monthly Rainfall Forecast
RAINFALL FORECAST  (July - December 2017) 
UPDATED: 04 July 2017 (next update August 2017)


Regional Rainfall Forecast
Issued: 05 July 2017
Valid for: July - December 2017
Farm Weather Forecast and Advisories
ISSUED              : 8AM, FRIDAY, JULY 28, 2017
VALID UNTIL      :  8AM, SATURDAY, JULY 29, 2017
FWFA:  N0. 17-210


Ten-Day Regional Agri-Weather Information
DEKAD NO. 21 July 21-31, 2017

PHILIPPINE AGRI-WEATHER FORECAST
The weather systems that will affect the whole country are southwest monsoon, intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), low pressure area (LPA) and tropical cyclone.
Seasonal Climate Outlook
Issued:  06 July 2017
FOR July - December 2017
PDF 




Astronomical Diary
Issue for July 2017
Stargazers will be having a nice time watching the night sky...




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 Impact Assessment for Agriculture full document


     The Impact Assessment and Applications Section (IAAS) of Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD) regularly issue this monthly/bulletin which will provide users such as food security managers, economic policy makers, agricultural statisticians and agricultural extension officials with qualitative information on the current and potential effects of climate and weather variability on rainfed crops, particularly rice and corn. This bulletin, entitled “Climate Impact Assessment for Agriculture in the Philippines”, represents a method for converting meteorological data into economic information that can be used as supplement to information from other available sources.

    For example, an agricultural statistician or economist involved in crop production and yield forecast problems can combine the assessment with analysis from area survey results, reports on the occurrence of pests and diseases, farmers’ reports and other data sources.

  The impact assessments are based on agroclimatic indices derived from historical rainfall data recorded for the period 1951 to the present. The indices, expressed in raw values percent of normals and percentile ranks, together with real time meteorological data (monthly rainfall, in percent of normal), percent of normal cumulative rainfall, as well as the occurrence of significant event such as typhoons, floods and droughts are the tools used in the assessment of crop performance. Crop reports from PAGASA field stations are also helpful.

The narrative impact assessment included in the bulletin depicts the regional performance of upland, 1st lowland and 2nd lowland palay; and dry and wet season corn crops, depending on the period or the season. Tabulated values of normal rainfall and generalized monsoon and yield moisture indices are provided for ready reference. Spatial analysis of rainfall, percent of normal rainfall and the generalized monsoon indices in percentile ranks are also presented on maps to help users visualize any unusual weather occurring during the period. The generalized monsoon indices in particular, are drought indicators; hence, the tables (see Appendices) together with the threshold values can be used in assessing drought impact, if there are any. It also helps assess any probable crop failure.

It is hoped therefore that this bulletin would help provide the decision-makers, planners and economist with timely and reliable early warning/information on climatic impact including the potential for subsistence food shortfalls, thereby enabling them to plan alternate cropping, if possible, food assistance strategies/mitigation measures to reduce the adverse impact of climate and eventually improve disaster preparedness.

     Impact assessment for other principal crops such as sugarcane and coconut, for energy and for water resources management, are from time to time will be included in the forthcoming issues of this bulletin.

  The IAAS of CAD will appreciate suggestions/comments from end-users and interested parties for the improvement of this bulletin.

Definition of Terms

The Generalized Monsoon Index (GMI) helps determine the performance of the rains during the season and serves as a good indicator of potential irrigation supplies. It is a tool used to assess rainfed crops.

The GMI for the southwest monsoon (GMIsw) in an area during June to September is defined as follows:
GMIsw = W6P6 + W7P7 + W8P8 + W9P9

The GMI for the northeast monsoon (GMIne) in an area during October to January is defined as:
GMIne = W10P10 + W11P11 + W12P12 + W1P1
where:
W = weight coefficient of monthly rainfall for the season;
P = rainfall amount in the ith month
(i = 1 for January, 2 = for February, etc.)

The Yield Moisture Index (YMI) is a simple index that helps the users assess agroclimatic crop conditions during the crop season. The YMI for a particular crop is defined as follows:
n YMI =  [Pi Ki] i
where:
i = crop stage (1 = planting/transplanting,
2 = vegetative, 3 = flowering, 4 = maturity, etc.)
n = total no. of crop stages;
P = rainfall during the ith crop stage; and
K = appropriate crop coefficient for the ith crop stage.
Tentatively, the threshold values of categories of indices for interpretation being adopted for both YMI and GMI are as follows:

Percentile
Rank
Interpretation
> 80 Potential for flood damage
41 - 80 Near normal to above-normal crop condition
21 - 40 Moderate drought impact with reduced yield
11 - 20 Drought impact with major yield losses
< 10 Severe drought impact with crop failure and potential food shortages

 
 

AGROCLIMATIC / CROP CONDITION ASSESSMENT

FOR JUNE 2017

OVERVIEW
     
Harvesting of dry-season corn has just begun in some parts of the country; good to normal yield is expected in Infanta, Camarines Norte, Northen Samar, and Surigao del Sur. In contrast, below normal yield may be anticipated in Albay, Catanduanes, and Surigao del Norte because the crops experienced moisture deficiency from flowering to maturity.  Meanwhile, land preparation, planting, and transplanting activities in many parts of the country for the late-planted lowland 1st palay as well as late-planted, upland palay has now commenced. Farming activities in Ilocos Sur, Ilocos Norte, Cagayan Valley, Nueva Ecija, Batangas, Puerto Princesa, Albay, Catanduanes, Masbate, Negros Oriental, Bohol, Zamboanga del Sur, and Surigao del Norte may be hampered due to insufficient moisture available over those areas. Standing rice and corn crops in most areas of the country experienced favorable crop conditions, while in some parts, due to insufficient moisture, crops suffered moisture stress.

Rainfall assessment for the month of June showed that majority of the western parts of Luzon, Bicol Area, Negros Oriental, Siquijor, Eastern Samar, and Zamboanga Peninsula experienced way below to below normal rainfall conditions.  The rest of Luzon, most of Visayas, and most of Mindanao received near to above normal rainfall.

The weather systems that affected the country during the month were the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ), southwest (SW) monsoon, low pressure areas (LPAs), local thunderstorms, and ridge of high pressure area (HPA).  No tropical cyclone had developed or entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) during the period.  Monsoon breaks were also observed that lasted for more than a week in areas under a Type I climate.

REGION I (Ilocos Region)

Land preparation, planting, and transplanting activities for late-planted, upland 1st palay has now started in Pangasinan due to favorably good weather and adequate moisture available during the month. Meanwhile, in Ilocos Norte and Ilocos Sur, all farming activities may be hampered due to insufficient moisture in those areas. Likewise, standing crops might be affected by moisture stress.

CAR (Cordillera Autonomous Region)

Land preparation, planting, and transplanting activities for late-planted, upland 1st palay was favored by sufficient moisture available during the month. Moreover, standing rice and corn crops are in good conditions.

REGION II ( Cagayan Valley)

In Cagayan Valley, all farming activities related to planting upland palay may be hampered because of very low rainfall received during the month. Likewise, standing, wet-season corn in vegetative stage and upland palay in reproductive stage were severely affected and suffered moisture stress.

REGION III (Central Luzon)

In most parts of the region, land preparation, planting, and transplanting activities for late-planted, upland 1st palay is favored by sufficient amount of rainfall received during the month, except in Cabanatuan. The wet-season corn in vegetative stage and upland, 1st palay in reproductive stage are faring well, while crops in Nueva Ecija might be suffering moisture stress due to the inadequate moisture available.

REGION IV-A (CALABARZON)

Harvesting of dry season corn in Infanta and neighboring towns now commences; good to normal yield are expected this season because crops experienced favorable condition during the critical stage of growth. Moreover, sufficient moisture available during the month favors land preparation, planting, and transplanting for late-planted, lowland 1st palay in Infanta and late-planted, upland palay in Tayabas.  The considerably adequate rainfall received during the month favors the standing rice and corn crops.

REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA)

Land preparation, planting, and transplanting activities for late-planted, upland 1st palay is underway in most parts of the region; it is favored by adequate moisture available during the month.  Meanwhile, in Puerto Princesa, all farming activities related to planting late-planted, upland palay might be hampered due to insufficient rainfall received. Widespread rainfall in June improved crop condition of the vegetating, wet-season corn as well as the newly-planted, upland palay.

REGION V  (Bicol Region)  

Harvesting of dry-season corn is now on going in Camarines Norte; good to normal yield may be anticipated because crops were in good condition during their critical stage of growth. Sufficient moisture and good weather favors land preparation, planting, and transplanting activities for late-planted, lowland 1st palay that is now on going in most parts of the region. Meanwhile, planting of lowland 1st palay in Catanduanes and late-planted, upland palay in Masbate might be hampered due to insufficient moisture available during the month. Standing crops in Camarines Norte is faring well, but in Albay, crops suffered moisture stress.

REGION VI (Western Visayas) 

Land preparation, planting, and transplanting activities for the late-planted, upland palay had just begun in Panay Island; it is favored by sufficient amount of moisture available during the month. Newly-planted, upland palay and wet-season corn in vegetative stage continued to experience good crop condition.

REGION VII (Central Visayas)

Land preparation, planting, and transplanting of late-planted, upland palay had just begun in Mactan due to the sufficient rainfall available during the month.  Meanwhile, in other parts of the region, related farming activities might be hampered due to very low rainfall received in those areas.

REGION VIII (Eastern Visayas)

Harvesting of dry season corn in Northern Samar has begun; good to normal yield is expected due to sufficient moisture experienced by the crops from planting to maturity. Meanwhile, land preparation, planting, and transplanting activities for the late-planted, lowland and upland palay in Eastern Visayas was favored by widespread rainfall received during the month. Standing wet-season corn, newly planted lowland and upland palay experienced good crop condition in most parts of the region

REGION IX (Zamboanga Peninsula)

In the northern part of the region, land preparation, planting, and transplanting activities for the late-planted, upland 1st palay commences. While in the southern part, any farming activity related to planting rice could not possibly be undertaken because of insufficient moisture available during the month. The newly-planted, upland palay and vegetating, wet-season corn, in the northern part of the region, continued to experience good crop condition.

REGION  X (Northern Mindanao)

Land preparation, planting, and transplanting activities for the late-planted, upland 1st palay is now in progress in Bukidnon and Misamis Oriental due to sufficient moisture available during the month. The newly-planted, upland palay and the vegetating, wet-season corn in Bukidnon are faring well.

REGION XI (Davao Region)

Land preparation, planting, and transplanting activities for the late-planted, upland 1st palay just started across the region; sufficient moisture available during the month favors the same.  The newly-planted, upland palay and the vegetating, wet-season corn experienced normal crops condition.

REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)

Sufficient moisture available during the month favors land preparation, planting, and transplanting activities for late-planted, upland 1st palay, which had just started across the region.

REGION XIII (CARAGA Region)

Harvesting of dry season corn now started in Surigao del sur; good to normal yield is expected this season. Sufficient moisture available during the month favors land preparation, planting, and other farming activities for the late-planted lowland 1st palay in Surigao del sur. The newly planted lowland 1st palay are in normal crop condition.

ARMM ((Autonomous Region of Muslim  Mindanao)

Sufficient moisture available during the month favors newly planted upland palay across the region. Standing crops experienced normal condition.


For Particulars, please contact:
THELMA A. CINCO                                                                                                                                                                                          
Impact Assessment and Applications Section (IAAS)
Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD)
PAGASA-DOST
Telefax No.: 434-58-82

 

MDSI v2

PUBLIC WARNING 


It has come to the attention of the Office of the Administrator of PAGASA that a certain person has been using the name of Dr. Vicente B. Malano to solicit money from the contractors of PAGASA.

Dr. Malano wishes to inform the public that he has not authorized anyone to solicit money on his behalf and to warn everyone against dealing with unscrupulous activities of certain individuals.



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