Gale Warning
Issued at: 5:00 PM TODAY , 05 April 2017
Gale Warning # 10 (Final)
For:

Gale Warning in PDF file





Monthly Climate Assessment and Outlook

Issued: 07 April 2017


ENSO Weekly Monitoring: La Nina Watch continues.. 
16 September 2016
updates shall be issued as appropriate.


Monthly Rainfall Forecast
RAINFALL FORECAST  (April - September 2017) 
UPDATED: 05 April 2017 (next update 26 May 2017)


Regional Rainfall Forecast
Issued: 05 April 2017
Valid for: April-September 2017
Farm Weather Forecast and Advisories
ISSUED              : 8AM, MONDAY, APRIL 24, 2017
VALID UNTIL      :  8AM, TUESDAY, APRIL 25, 2017
FWFA:  N0. 17-114


Ten-Day Regional Agri-Weather Information

DEKAD NO. 12 April 21 - 30, 2017

PHILIPPINE AGRI-WEATHER FORECAST

      The weather systems that are expected to affect the whole country within the ten-day period are ridge of high pressure area, easterlies and low pressure area.

Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers and thunderstorms mostly in the afternoon or evening are expected over the whole country during the early and the middle days of the forecast period. On the latter part of the period, a possible low pressure area will affect the eastern section of Visayas and Mindanao which will bring cloudy skies with light to moderate rains. The rest of the country will have partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rainshowers and thunderstorms mostly in the afternoon or evening.

Winds blowing from the southeast to south will prevail over Luzon and Visayas and coming from the east to northeast over Mindanao. The whole archipelago will have slight to moderate seas during the early and middle days of the dekadal period. On the latter part of the dekad the seaboards of Northern Luzon, eastern Visayas and Mindanao will have moderate to occasionally rough seas while the rest of the country will have slight to moderate seas.

            The eastern and central equatorial Pacific is in neutral condition.


Seasonal Climate Outlook
Issued:  20 January 2017
FOR January - June 2017
PDF 




Astronomical Diary
Issue for April 2017
Lyrids Meteor, Jupiter, Saturn will be found at about 19 degrees above the east southeastern horizon and...




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 Impact Assessment for Agriculture full document


     The Impact Assessment and Applications Section (IAAS) of Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD) regularly issue this monthly/bulletin which will provide users such as food security managers, economic policy makers, agricultural statisticians and agricultural extension officials with qualitative information on the current and potential effects of climate and weather variability on rainfed crops, particularly rice and corn. This bulletin, entitled “Climate Impact Assessment for Agriculture in the Philippines”, represents a method for converting meteorological data into economic information that can be used as supplement to information from other available sources.

    For example, an agricultural statistician or economist involved in crop production and yield forecast problems can combine the assessment with analysis from area survey results, reports on the occurrence of pests and diseases, farmers’ reports and other data sources.

  The impact assessments are based on agroclimatic indices derived from historical rainfall data recorded for the period 1951 to the present. The indices, expressed in raw values percent of normals and percentile ranks, together with real time meteorological data (monthly rainfall, in percent of normal), percent of normal cumulative rainfall, as well as the occurrence of significant event such as typhoons, floods and droughts are the tools used in the assessment of crop performance. Crop reports from PAGASA field stations are also helpful.

The narrative impact assessment included in the bulletin depicts the regional performance of upland, 1st lowland and 2nd lowland palay; and dry and wet season corn crops, depending on the period or the season. Tabulated values of normal rainfall and generalized monsoon and yield moisture indices are provided for ready reference. Spatial analysis of rainfall, percent of normal rainfall and the generalized monsoon indices in percentile ranks are also presented on maps to help users visualize any unusual weather occurring during the period. The generalized monsoon indices in particular, are drought indicators; hence, the tables (see Appendices) together with the threshold values can be used in assessing drought impact, if there are any. It also helps assess any probable crop failure.

It is hoped therefore that this bulletin would help provide the decision-makers, planners and economist with timely and reliable early warning/information on climatic impact including the potential for subsistence food shortfalls, thereby enabling them to plan alternate cropping, if possible, food assistance strategies/mitigation measures to reduce the adverse impact of climate and eventually improve disaster preparedness.

     Impact assessment for other principal crops such as sugarcane and coconut, for energy and for water resources management, are from time to time will be included in the forthcoming issues of this bulletin.

  The IAAS of CAD will appreciate suggestions/comments from end-users and interested parties for the improvement of this bulletin.

Definition of Terms

The Generalized Monsoon Index (GMI) helps determine the performance of the rains during the season and serves as a good indicator of potential irrigation supplies. It is a tool used to assess rainfed crops.

The GMI for the southwest monsoon (GMIsw) in an area during June to September is defined as follows:
GMIsw = W6P6 + W7P7 + W8P8 + W9P9

The GMI for the northeast monsoon (GMIne) in an area during October to January is defined as:
GMIne = W10P10 + W11P11 + W12P12 + W1P1
where:
W = weight coefficient of monthly rainfall for the season;
P = rainfall amount in the ith month
(i = 1 for January, 2 = for February, etc.)

The Yield Moisture Index (YMI) is a simple index that helps the users assess agroclimatic crop conditions during the crop season. The YMI for a particular crop is defined as follows:
n YMI =  [Pi Ki] i
where:
i = crop stage (1 = planting/transplanting,
2 = vegetative, 3 = flowering, 4 = maturity, etc.)
n = total no. of crop stages;
P = rainfall during the ith crop stage; and
K = appropriate crop coefficient for the ith crop stage.
Tentatively, the threshold values of categories of indices for interpretation being adopted for both YMI and GMI are as follows:

Percentile
Rank
Interpretation
> 80 Potential for flood damage
41 - 80 Near normal to above-normal crop condition
21 - 40 Moderate drought impact with reduced yield
11 - 20 Drought impact with major yield losses
< 10 Severe drought impact with crop failure and potential food shortages

 
 

AGROCLIMATIC / CROP CONDITION ASSESSMENT

FOR MARCH 2017

OVERVIEW
     
In most parts of the country, harvesting of late-planted lowland 2nd palay has just begun; good to normal yield is expected in Baler, Casiguran, most parts of CALABARZON, most areas in Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, and Bukidnon because of sufficient moisture experience by the crops during their critical stage of growth. In contrast, below normal yield is anticipated in Cagayan Valley, Ambulong, Calapan, Romblon, Masbate, Central Visayas, Dipolog, and CARAGA because of moisture stress and water logging experienced by the crops. Meanwhile, standing early planted wet season corn experienced good crop conditions in Eastern part of Central Luzon, most parts of CALABARZON, most of Bicol Region, and Eastern Visayas. However, insufficient moisture that potentially stressed corn crops were noted in Ambulong, while water logging has slightly affected corn crops in most parts of CARAGA region.  

Rainfall assessment for the month showed that most parts of Visayas and Mindanao received above normal rainfall, while below to way below normal rainfall conditions were observed over most parts of Luzon.  The rest of the country received near normal rainfall.

The weather systems that affected the country during March were the northeast (NE) monsoon, tail-end of the cold front (TECF), low pressure areas (LPAs), easterlies, and the ridge of high pressure areas (HPA). No tropical cyclone has developed or entered in the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) during the month.

 
REGION I (Ilocos Region)

Because of insufficient amount of rainfall received during the month, any farming activity could not be done across the region.

CAR (Cordillera Autonomous Region)

During the month, the possibility of planting rice or corn cannot be done in any part of the region due to insufficient moisture available all over the region.

REGION II ( Cagayan Valley)

Harvesting of late-planted lowland 2nd palay has now started in many parts of the region; below normal yield is expected because the crops experienced moisture stress during their critical stage of growth and development.

 REGION III (Central Luzon)

In the eastern part of the region, harvesting of late-planted lowland 2nd palay has just begun; good to normal yield is expected. Those were benefited from adequate moisture and favorable weather condition that prevailed from planting to maturity.

Meanwhile, the vegetating early-planted wet season corn was benefited by sufficient moisture received during the month. On the contrary, any farming activities may not be possible to be undertaken in central and western parts of the region due to lesser amount of rainfall received.

REGION IV-A (CALABARZON)

Harvesting of late-planted lowland 2nd palay is now in progress. Good to normal yield may be expected this season due to favorable weather and sufficient moisture experienced by the crops during their critical stage of growth and development. However, below normal yield is anticipated in Ambulong because of moisture stress experienced by the crops during their vegetative stage.

Meanwhile, the adequate amount of moisture available during the month favors the vegetating early planted wet season corn in most parts of the region.

 REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA)

Harvesting of late-planted lowland 2nd palay started in Calapan and Romblon; below normal yield is anticipated because the crops experienced moisture stress during their critical stage of growth and development.

REGION V  (Bicol Region)  

Harvesting of late-planted lowland 2nd palay now begins across the region; good to normal yield may be expected in Legaspi and Daet because the crops experienced good condition during their critical stage of growth and development. In contrast, below normal yield is anticipated in Virac and Masbate because the crops there experienced moisture stress during their critical stage of growth. 

Meanwhile, standing early planted wet season corn, which is currently vegetating, is faring well in Daet, Virac, and Legaspi because of sufficient moisture received during the month. However, the crops in Masbate are experiencing moisture stress. 

 
REGION VI (Western Visayas) 

Harvesting of late-planted lowland 2nd palay has just begun in Panay Island; below normal yield is anticipated due to moisture stress experienced by the crops during their critical stage of growthREGION VII (Central Visayas)

Below normal yield is expected for the harvestable late-planted lowland 2nd palay because of inadequate moisture available during the month and of the moisture stress experienced by the crops during their critical stage of growth.

 REGION VIII (Eastern Visayas)

Harvesting of late-planted lowland 2nd palay has just begun across the region. Good to normal yield is anticipated because the crops experienced well-distributed moisture and favorable weather conditions during the entire growing season. Similarly, early-planted wet season corn is in good condition because of sufficient moisture available during the month.

REGION IX (Zamboanga Peninsula)

Harvestable late-planted lowland 2nd palay in Zamboanga del Norte is anticipated to have below normal yield. This is due to moisture stress experienced by the crops during their critical stage of growth and development.

REGION  X (Northern Mindanao)

Harvesting of late-planted lowland 2nd palay is now in progress across the region. Good to near normal harvest is expected in Bukidnon due to the relatively sufficient moisture that favored the crops during their critical stage of growth. Contrastingly, below normal yield is anticipated in Misamis Oriental because the crops over there experienced moisture stress from flowering to maturity.

REGION XI (Davao Region)

Sufficient moisture available across the region is favorable to any farming activities to be done during the month.

REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)

Because of the minimal amount of moisture available during the month, any farming activity may not be possibly undertaken in any part of the region.

REGION XIII (CARAGA Region)

Harvesting of late-planted lowland 2nd palay has just begun; below normal yield might be expected due to water logging experienced by the crops during their critical stage of growth.

Meanwhile, standing early-planted wet season corn experienced water logging in the 1st dekad of the month, but somehow recovered in the succeeding dekads.

ARMM ((Autonomous Region of Muslim  Mindanao)

Sufficient moisture received during the month is favorable for any farming activity related to planting rice and corn in any part of the region




For Particulars, please contact:
THELMA A. CINCO                                                                                                                                                                                          
Impact Assessment and Applications Section (IAAS)
Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD)
PAGASA-DOST
Telefax No.: 434-58-82

 


PUBLIC WARNING 

It has come to the attention of the Office of the Administrator of PAGASA that a certain person has been using the name of Dr. Vicente B. Malano to solicit money from the contractors of PAGASA.

Dr. Malano wishes to inform the public that he has not authorized anyone to solicit money on his behalf and to warn everyone against dealing with unscrupulous activities of certain individuals.


payong pagasa on android The latest version of the official PAGASA app can now be downloaded on Google play store

Weather Division is now  ISO 9001:2008 Certified
Proof has been furnished by means of an audit that the requirements of ISO 9001:2008 are met.

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PAGASA S&T RELEASE
PRESS STATEMENT
10 April 2017
               
SPECIAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE LENTEN SEASON


Starting today (April 10) until Maundy Thursday (April 13), warm and dry weather conditions associated with sunny weather will prevail over the entire archipelago, with chances of some isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms due to the Ridge of High Pressure Area (HPA) and Easterlies.

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PAGASA S&T Release
PRESS STATEMENT
05 April 2017


TERMINATION OF THE NORTHEAST MONSOON

The resurgence of the Northeast Monsoon that affected the Northern and Central Luzon during the last few days has weakened.  Latest weather map analyses and numerical model outputs indicate
Read more ...