Gale Warning
Issued at: 5:00 PM TODAY , 05 April 2017
Gale Warning # 10 (Final)
For:

Gale Warning in PDF file





Monthly Climate Assessment and Outlook

Issued: 04 May 2017

Monthly Rainfall Forecast
RAINFALL FORECAST  (May - September 2017) 
UPDATED: 05 April 2017 (next update 26 May 2017)


Regional Rainfall Forecast
Issued: 05 April 2017
Valid for: April-September 2017
Farm Weather Forecast and Advisories
ISSUED              :  8AM, FRIDAY, MAY 26, 2017
VALID UNTIL      :  8AM, SATURDAY, MAY 27, 2017
FWFA:  N0. 17-146


Ten-Day Regional Agri-Weather Information

DEKAD NO. 15 May 21 - 31, 2017

PHILIPPINE AGRI-WEATHER FORECAST

The weather systems that will affect the whole country are frontal system, easterlies, southwest monsoon and intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ).

Throughout the dekadal period, Northern Luzon especially Ilocos Region, CAR, Cagayan Valley will be cloudy with light to moderate rains and isolated thunderstorms. Mindanao will experience cloudy skies with rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms due to enhanced convection brought by ITCZ. While the rest of the country will have fair weather with possible isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms mostly in the evening or afternoon.

Light to moderate winds coming from southeast to east will prevail over Mindanao, Visayas and eastern section of the country and from southwest over western section especially of Northern Luzon.

During the forecast period, the coastal waters throughout the whole country will be slight to moderate seas.

The eastern and central equatorial Pacific is in neutral condition.


Seasonal Climate Outlook
Issued:  20 January 2017
FOR January - June 2017
PDF 




Astronomical Diary
Issue for May 2017
The month of May marks the occurrence of Eta Aquarid meteor shower...




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 Impact Assessment for Agriculture full document


     The Impact Assessment and Applications Section (IAAS) of Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD) regularly issue this monthly/bulletin which will provide users such as food security managers, economic policy makers, agricultural statisticians and agricultural extension officials with qualitative information on the current and potential effects of climate and weather variability on rainfed crops, particularly rice and corn. This bulletin, entitled “Climate Impact Assessment for Agriculture in the Philippines”, represents a method for converting meteorological data into economic information that can be used as supplement to information from other available sources.

    For example, an agricultural statistician or economist involved in crop production and yield forecast problems can combine the assessment with analysis from area survey results, reports on the occurrence of pests and diseases, farmers’ reports and other data sources.

  The impact assessments are based on agroclimatic indices derived from historical rainfall data recorded for the period 1951 to the present. The indices, expressed in raw values percent of normals and percentile ranks, together with real time meteorological data (monthly rainfall, in percent of normal), percent of normal cumulative rainfall, as well as the occurrence of significant event such as typhoons, floods and droughts are the tools used in the assessment of crop performance. Crop reports from PAGASA field stations are also helpful.

The narrative impact assessment included in the bulletin depicts the regional performance of upland, 1st lowland and 2nd lowland palay; and dry and wet season corn crops, depending on the period or the season. Tabulated values of normal rainfall and generalized monsoon and yield moisture indices are provided for ready reference. Spatial analysis of rainfall, percent of normal rainfall and the generalized monsoon indices in percentile ranks are also presented on maps to help users visualize any unusual weather occurring during the period. The generalized monsoon indices in particular, are drought indicators; hence, the tables (see Appendices) together with the threshold values can be used in assessing drought impact, if there are any. It also helps assess any probable crop failure.

It is hoped therefore that this bulletin would help provide the decision-makers, planners and economist with timely and reliable early warning/information on climatic impact including the potential for subsistence food shortfalls, thereby enabling them to plan alternate cropping, if possible, food assistance strategies/mitigation measures to reduce the adverse impact of climate and eventually improve disaster preparedness.

     Impact assessment for other principal crops such as sugarcane and coconut, for energy and for water resources management, are from time to time will be included in the forthcoming issues of this bulletin.

  The IAAS of CAD will appreciate suggestions/comments from end-users and interested parties for the improvement of this bulletin.

Definition of Terms

The Generalized Monsoon Index (GMI) helps determine the performance of the rains during the season and serves as a good indicator of potential irrigation supplies. It is a tool used to assess rainfed crops.

The GMI for the southwest monsoon (GMIsw) in an area during June to September is defined as follows:
GMIsw = W6P6 + W7P7 + W8P8 + W9P9

The GMI for the northeast monsoon (GMIne) in an area during October to January is defined as:
GMIne = W10P10 + W11P11 + W12P12 + W1P1
where:
W = weight coefficient of monthly rainfall for the season;
P = rainfall amount in the ith month
(i = 1 for January, 2 = for February, etc.)

The Yield Moisture Index (YMI) is a simple index that helps the users assess agroclimatic crop conditions during the crop season. The YMI for a particular crop is defined as follows:
n YMI =  [Pi Ki] i
where:
i = crop stage (1 = planting/transplanting,
2 = vegetative, 3 = flowering, 4 = maturity, etc.)
n = total no. of crop stages;
P = rainfall during the ith crop stage; and
K = appropriate crop coefficient for the ith crop stage.
Tentatively, the threshold values of categories of indices for interpretation being adopted for both YMI and GMI are as follows:

Percentile
Rank
Interpretation
> 80 Potential for flood damage
41 - 80 Near normal to above-normal crop condition
21 - 40 Moderate drought impact with reduced yield
11 - 20 Drought impact with major yield losses
< 10 Severe drought impact with crop failure and potential food shortages

 
 

AGROCLIMATIC / CROP CONDITION ASSESSMENT

FOR APRIL 2017

OVERVIEW
     
In some parts of the country, harvesting of early planted wet season corn has just begun; good to normal yield is expected in Baler, Casiguran, most parts of CALABARZON, and most areas in Bicol Region because of sufficient moisture experienced by the crops during their critical stage of growth. In contrast, below normal yield is anticipated over Masbate, Eastern Visayas, and CARAGA due to moisture stress and water logging, which were experienced by the crops.  Meanwhile, land preparation and planting of dry season corn has now started in Infanta, Daet, Catarman, Surigao and Hinatuan, sufficient moisture available during the month favored such activities.  On the other hand, inadequate amount of rainfall received in Legaspi and Virac hampered the planting of dry season corn over those areas.

Analyses of rainfall for the month of April showed that near to above normal rainfall was received over Northern Luzon, Metro Manila, MIMAROPA Region, Visayas, and Mindanao; the rest of the country experienced way below to below normal rainfall conditions.

The weather systems that affected the country in April were the northeast monsoon, tail-end of the cold front, low pressure areas, easterlies, ridge of high pressure areas, and the occurrence of Tropical Depression (TD) “Crising” (April 14-15) and Tropical Storm (TS) “Dante” (April 26-27).  TD “Crising” developed inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and made landfall over Hernani, Eastern Samar and eventually caused floodings in some parts of Cebu.  Meanwhile, TS “Dante” had no direct effect in the country and subsequently weakened into a TD. 

 
REGION I (Ilocos Region)

Any farming activities related to rice and corn could not be done across the region because of insufficient amount of rainfall received during the month.

CAR (Cordillera Autonomous Region)

Because of insufficient rainfall available in any parts of the region, the possibility of planting rain-fed rice and corn cannot be done during the month.

REGION II ( Cagayan Valley)

Sun-drying and rice stocking of previously harvested late-planted lowland 2nd palay is in progress across the region.

REGION III (Central Luzon)

Harvesting of early-planted wet season corn has now begun in the eastern part of the region; good to normal yield is expected. Those were benefited from adequate moisture and favorable weather condition that prevailed over the region from the crops’ planting to maturity stages

REGION IV-A (CALABARZON)

Harvesting of early-planted wet season corn in most parts of the region has just begun; good to normal yield is anticipated because the crops received sufficient moisture during their critical stage of growth and development.

Meanwhile, land preparation and planting of dry season corn is now in progress in Infanta, sufficient moisture and good weather conditions that prevailed during the month favored such activities.

REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA)

Post-harvesting and subsequent sun-drying and stocking activities of late-planted lowland 2nd palay have started in Romblon and Calapan.

REGION V  (Bicol Region)  

Harvesting of early-planted wet season corn is now in progress in Daet, Virac, and Legaspi; good to normal yield is expected because of good moisture experienced by the crops from planting to maturity. In contrast, below normal yield is anticipated in Masbate due to moisture stress experienced by the crops during their critical stage of growth. 

Meanwhile, sufficient moisture and good weather favored land preparation and planting of dry season corn in Daet. However, insufficient moisture available during the month might have hampered planting of dry season corn in most parts of the region.

REGION VI (Western Visayas) 

Continuous sunny weather favors the sun-drying and stocking activities of the post harvested late-planted lowland 2nd palay in Panay Island. 

 
REGION VII (Central Visayas)

Sun-drying activities for the post harvested late-planted lowland 2nd palay have almost finished across the region.

REGION VIII (Eastern Visayas)

Harvesting of early-planted wet season corn is now going on across the region; good to normal yield is expected because of sufficient moisture experienced by the crops during their critical stage of growth and development. 

Meanwhile, land preparation and planting of dry season corn might have been hampered in Catarman due to insufficient moisture available during the month.

REGION IX (Zamboanga Peninsula)

In most parts of the region, farming activity related to planting rice and corn could not possibly be undertaken due to insufficient moisture available during the month.

REGION  X (Northern Mindanao)

The sufficient moisture available during the month has favored farming activities particularly in Bukidnon. Contrastingly, any farming activity cannot be done in Misamis Oriental because of inadequate rainfall received over there.

REGION XI (Davao Region)

Sufficient moisture available during the month is favorable for any farming activities to be done across the region.

REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)

Any farming activity may not be possibly undertaken in any part of the region because of insufficient moisture available during the month.

REGION XIII (CARAGA Region)

Harvesting of early-planted wet season corn had just begun across the region; below normal yield might be expected due to water logging experienced by the crops during their critical stage of growth.

Sufficient moisture available during the month favors land preparation and subsequent planting of dry season corn across the region.

ARMM ((Autonomous Region of Muslim  Mindanao)
 
Because of insufficient moisture available during the month; any farming activity related to planting of rice and corn in any part of the region may not possibly be done.

 



For Particulars, please contact:
THELMA A. CINCO                                                                                                                                                                                          
Impact Assessment and Applications Section (IAAS)
Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD)
PAGASA-DOST
Telefax No.: 434-58-82

 

meteopilippinas

PUBLIC WARNING 


It has come to the attention of the Office of the Administrator of PAGASA that a certain person has been using the name of Dr. Vicente B. Malano to solicit money from the contractors of PAGASA.

Dr. Malano wishes to inform the public that he has not authorized anyone to solicit money on his behalf and to warn everyone against dealing with unscrupulous activities of certain individuals.



payong pagasa on android The latest version of the official PAGASA app can now be downloaded on Google play store

Weather Division is now  ISO 9001:2008 Certified
Proof has been furnished by means of an audit that the requirements of ISO 9001:2008 are met.

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PRESS RELEASE
24 May 2017

START OF SOUTHWEST MONSOON

Southwesterly windflow has been dominant over the West Philippine Sea for several days now. This is due to the formation of semi-permanent trough over Northern Luzon-Taiwan area and the eastward migration of the North Pacific High Pressure Area which are the prominent indicators of the southwest monsoon onset in the country. 

Likewise, the prevailing weather condition in most parts of Luzon and Visayas particularly the western section is now warm and humid as characterized by occasional to frequent occurrences of afternoon-evening or early morning rainshowers and thunderstorms. These developments signify the approaching onset of rainy season under Type 1 climate covering the western parts of Luzon and Visayas.


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DOST-PAGASA S&T Release

17 May 2017

To further strengthen its weather forecasting capabilities, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), in partnership with the Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA), inaugurates the new Communication, Ocean and Meteorological Satellite (COMS) Data Analysis System at the PAGASA Weather and Flood Forecasting Center in Quezon City.


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