The Impact Assessment and Applications Section (IAAS) of Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD) regularly issue this monthly/bulletin which will provide users such as food security managers, economic policy makers, agricultural statisticians and agricultural extension officials with qualitative information on the current and potential effects of climate and weather variability on rainfed crops, particularly rice and corn. This bulletin, entitled “Climate Impact Assessment for Agriculture in the Philippines”, represents a method for converting meteorological data into economic information that can be used as supplement to information from other available sources.
For example, an agricultural statistician or economist involved in crop production and yield forecast problems can combine the assessment with analysis from area survey results, reports on the occurrence of pests and diseases, farmers’ reports and other data sources.
The impact assessments are based on agroclimatic indices derived from historical rainfall data recorded for the period 1951 to the present. The indices, expressed in raw values percent of normals and percentile ranks, together with real time meteorological data (monthly rainfall, in percent of normal), percent of normal cumulative rainfall, as well as the occurrence of significant event such as typhoons, floods and droughts are the tools used in the assessment of crop performance. Crop reports from PAGASA field stations are also helpful.
The narrative impact assessment included in the bulletin depicts the regional performance of upland, 1st lowland and 2nd lowland palay; and dry and wet season corn crops, depending on the period or the season. Tabulated values of normal rainfall and generalized monsoon and yield moisture indices are provided for ready reference. Spatial analysis of rainfall, percent of normal rainfall and the generalized monsoon indices in percentile ranks are also presented on maps to help users visualize any unusual weather occurring during the period. The generalized monsoon indices in particular, are drought indicators; hence, the tables (see Appendices) together with the threshold values can be used in assessing drought impact, if there are any. It also helps assess any probable crop failure.
It is hoped therefore that this bulletin would help provide the decision-makers, planners and economist with timely and reliable early warning/information on climatic impact including the potential for subsistence food shortfalls, thereby enabling them to plan alternate cropping, if possible, food assistance strategies/mitigation measures to reduce the adverse impact of climate and eventually improve disaster preparedness.
Impact assessment for other principal crops such as sugarcane and coconut, for energy and for water resources management, are from time to time will be included in the forthcoming issues of this bulletin.
The IAAS of CAD will appreciate suggestions/comments from end-users and interested parties for the improvement of this bulletin.Definition of Terms
The Generalized Monsoon Index (GMI) helps determine the performance of the rains during the season and serves as a good indicator of potential irrigation supplies. It is a tool used to assess rainfed crops.
The GMI for the southwest monsoon (GMIsw) in an area during June to September is defined as follows:
The GMI for the northeast monsoon (GMIne) in an area during October to January is defined as:
The Yield Moisture Index (YMI) is a simple index that helps the users assess agroclimatic crop conditions during the crop season. The YMI for a particular crop is defined as follows:
AGROCLIMATIC / CROP CONDITION ASSESSMENT
In most parts of the country, harvesting of late-planted lowland 2nd palay has just begun; good to normal yield is expected in Baler, Casiguran, most parts of CALABARZON, most areas in Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, and Bukidnon because of sufficient moisture experience by the crops during their critical stage of growth. In contrast, below normal yield is anticipated in Cagayan Valley, Ambulong, Calapan, Romblon, Masbate, Central Visayas, Dipolog, and CARAGA because of moisture stress and water logging experienced by the crops. Meanwhile, standing early planted wet season corn experienced good crop conditions in Eastern part of Central Luzon, most parts of CALABARZON, most of Bicol Region, and Eastern Visayas. However, insufficient moisture that potentially stressed corn crops were noted in Ambulong, while water logging has slightly affected corn crops in most parts of CARAGA region.
Rainfall assessment for the month showed that most parts of Visayas and Mindanao received above normal rainfall, while below to way below normal rainfall conditions were observed over most parts of Luzon. The rest of the country received near normal rainfall.
The weather systems that affected the country during March were the northeast (NE) monsoon, tail-end of the cold front (TECF), low pressure areas (LPAs), easterlies, and the ridge of high pressure areas (HPA). No tropical cyclone has developed or entered in the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) during the month.
REGION I (Ilocos Region)
Because of insufficient amount of rainfall received during the month, any farming activity could not be done across the region.
CAR (Cordillera Autonomous Region)
During the month, the possibility of planting rice or corn cannot be done in any part of the region due to insufficient moisture available all over the region.
REGION II ( Cagayan Valley)
Harvesting of late-planted lowland 2nd palay has now started in many parts of the region; below normal yield is expected because the crops experienced moisture stress during their critical stage of growth and development.
REGION III (Central Luzon)
In the eastern part of the region, harvesting of late-planted lowland 2nd palay has just begun; good to normal yield is expected. Those were benefited from adequate moisture and favorable weather condition that prevailed from planting to maturity.
Meanwhile, the vegetating early-planted wet season corn was benefited by sufficient moisture received during the month. On the contrary, any farming activities may not be possible to be undertaken in central and western parts of the region due to lesser amount of rainfall received.
REGION IV-A (CALABARZON)
Harvesting of late-planted lowland 2nd palay is now in progress. Good to normal yield may be expected this season due to favorable weather and sufficient moisture experienced by the crops during their critical stage of growth and development. However, below normal yield is anticipated in Ambulong because of moisture stress experienced by the crops during their vegetative stage.
Meanwhile, the adequate amount of moisture available during the month favors the vegetating early planted wet season corn in most parts of the region.
REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA)
Harvesting of late-planted lowland 2nd palay started in Calapan and Romblon; below normal yield is anticipated because the crops experienced moisture stress during their critical stage of growth and development.
REGION V (Bicol Region)
Harvesting of late-planted lowland 2nd palay now begins across the region; good to normal yield may be expected in Legaspi and Daet because the crops experienced good condition during their critical stage of growth and development. In contrast, below normal yield is anticipated in Virac and Masbate because the crops there experienced moisture stress during their critical stage of growth.
Meanwhile, standing early planted wet season corn, which is currently vegetating, is faring well in Daet, Virac, and Legaspi because of sufficient moisture received during the month. However, the crops in Masbate are experiencing moisture stress.
REGION VI (Western Visayas)
Harvesting of late-planted lowland 2nd palay has just begun in Panay Island; below normal yield is anticipated due to moisture stress experienced by the crops during their critical stage of growthREGION VII (Central Visayas)
Below normal yield is expected for the harvestable late-planted lowland 2nd palay because of inadequate moisture available during the month and of the moisture stress experienced by the crops during their critical stage of growth.
REGION VIII (Eastern Visayas)
Harvesting of late-planted lowland 2nd palay has just begun across the region. Good to normal yield is anticipated because the crops experienced well-distributed moisture and favorable weather conditions during the entire growing season. Similarly, early-planted wet season corn is in good condition because of sufficient moisture available during the month.
REGION IX (Zamboanga Peninsula)
Harvestable late-planted lowland 2nd palay in Zamboanga del Norte is anticipated to have below normal yield. This is due to moisture stress experienced by the crops during their critical stage of growth and development.
REGION X (Northern Mindanao)
Harvesting of late-planted lowland 2nd palay is now in progress across the region. Good to near normal harvest is expected in Bukidnon due to the relatively sufficient moisture that favored the crops during their critical stage of growth. Contrastingly, below normal yield is anticipated in Misamis Oriental because the crops over there experienced moisture stress from flowering to maturity.
REGION XI (Davao Region)
Sufficient moisture available across the region is favorable to any farming activities to be done during the month.
REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)
Because of the minimal amount of moisture available during the month, any farming activity may not be possibly undertaken in any part of the region.
REGION XIII (CARAGA Region)
Harvesting of late-planted lowland 2nd palay has just begun; below normal yield might be expected due to water logging experienced by the crops during their critical stage of growth.
Meanwhile, standing early-planted wet season corn experienced water logging in the 1st dekad of the month, but somehow recovered in the succeeding dekads.
ARMM ((Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao)
Sufficient moisture received during the month is favorable for any farming activity related to planting rice and corn in any part of the region
For Particulars, please contact:
THELMA A. CINCO
Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD)
Telefax No.: 434-58-82