The Impact Assessment and Applications Section (IAAS) of Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD) regularly issue this monthly/bulletin which will provide users such as food security managers, economic policy makers, agricultural statisticians and agricultural extension officials with qualitative information on the current and potential effects of climate and weather variability on rainfed crops, particularly rice and corn. This bulletin, entitled “Climate Impact Assessment for Agriculture in the Philippines”, represents a method for converting meteorological data into economic information that can be used as supplement to information from other available sources.
For example, an agricultural statistician or economist involved in crop production and yield forecast problems can combine the assessment with analysis from area survey results, reports on the occurrence of pests and diseases, farmers’ reports and other data sources.
The impact assessments are based on agroclimatic indices derived from historical rainfall data recorded for the period 1951 to the present. The indices, expressed in raw values percent of normals and percentile ranks, together with real time meteorological data (monthly rainfall, in percent of normal), percent of normal cumulative rainfall, as well as the occurrence of significant event such as typhoons, floods and droughts are the tools used in the assessment of crop performance. Crop reports from PAGASA field stations are also helpful.
The narrative impact assessment included in the bulletin depicts the regional performance of upland, 1st lowland and 2nd lowland palay; and dry and wet season corn crops, depending on the period or the season. Tabulated values of normal rainfall and generalized monsoon and yield moisture indices are provided for ready reference. Spatial analysis of rainfall, percent of normal rainfall and the generalized monsoon indices in percentile ranks are also presented on maps to help users visualize any unusual weather occurring during the period. The generalized monsoon indices in particular, are drought indicators; hence, the tables (see Appendices) together with the threshold values can be used in assessing drought impact, if there are any. It also helps assess any probable crop failure.
It is hoped therefore that this bulletin would help provide the decision-makers, planners and economist with timely and reliable early warning/information on climatic impact including the potential for subsistence food shortfalls, thereby enabling them to plan alternate cropping, if possible, food assistance strategies/mitigation measures to reduce the adverse impact of climate and eventually improve disaster preparedness.
Impact assessment for other principal crops such as sugarcane and coconut, for energy and for water resources management, are from time to time will be included in the forthcoming issues of this bulletin.
The IAAS of CAD will appreciate suggestions/comments from end-users and interested parties for the improvement of this bulletin.Definition of Terms
The Generalized Monsoon Index (GMI) helps determine the performance of the rains during the season and serves as a good indicator of potential irrigation supplies. It is a tool used to assess rainfed crops.
The GMI for the southwest monsoon (GMIsw) in an area during June to September is defined as follows:
The GMI for the northeast monsoon (GMIne) in an area during October to January is defined as:
The Yield Moisture Index (YMI) is a simple index that helps the users assess agroclimatic crop conditions during the crop season. The YMI for a particular crop is defined as follows:
AGROCLIMATIC / CROP CONDITION ASSESSMENT
In some parts of the country, harvesting of early planted wet season corn has just begun; good to normal yield is expected in Baler, Casiguran, most parts of CALABARZON, and most areas in Bicol Region because of sufficient moisture experienced by the crops during their critical stage of growth. In contrast, below normal yield is anticipated over Masbate, Eastern Visayas, and CARAGA due to moisture stress and water logging, which were experienced by the crops. Meanwhile, land preparation and planting of dry season corn has now started in Infanta, Daet, Catarman, Surigao and Hinatuan, sufficient moisture available during the month favored such activities. On the other hand, inadequate amount of rainfall received in Legaspi and Virac hampered the planting of dry season corn over those areas.
Analyses of rainfall for the month of April showed that near to above normal rainfall was received over Northern Luzon, Metro Manila, MIMAROPA Region, Visayas, and Mindanao; the rest of the country experienced way below to below normal rainfall conditions.
The weather systems that affected the country in April were the northeast monsoon, tail-end of the cold front, low pressure areas, easterlies, ridge of high pressure areas, and the occurrence of Tropical Depression (TD) “Crising” (April 14-15) and Tropical Storm (TS) “Dante” (April 26-27). TD “Crising” developed inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and made landfall over Hernani, Eastern Samar and eventually caused floodings in some parts of Cebu. Meanwhile, TS “Dante” had no direct effect in the country and subsequently weakened into a TD.
REGION I (Ilocos Region)
Any farming activities related to rice and corn could not be done across the region because of insufficient amount of rainfall received during the month.
CAR (Cordillera Autonomous Region)
Because of insufficient rainfall available in any parts of the region, the possibility of planting rain-fed rice and corn cannot be done during the month.
REGION II ( Cagayan Valley)
Sun-drying and rice stocking of previously harvested late-planted lowland 2nd palay is in progress across the region.
REGION III (Central Luzon)
Harvesting of early-planted wet season corn has now begun in the eastern part of the region; good to normal yield is expected. Those were benefited from adequate moisture and favorable weather condition that prevailed over the region from the crops’ planting to maturity stages
REGION IV-A (CALABARZON)
Harvesting of early-planted wet season corn in most parts of the region has just begun; good to normal yield is anticipated because the crops received sufficient moisture during their critical stage of growth and development.
Meanwhile, land preparation and planting of dry season corn is now in progress in Infanta, sufficient moisture and good weather conditions that prevailed during the month favored such activities.
REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA)
Post-harvesting and subsequent sun-drying and stocking activities of late-planted lowland 2nd palay have started in Romblon and Calapan.
REGION V (Bicol Region)
Harvesting of early-planted wet season corn is now in progress in Daet, Virac, and Legaspi; good to normal yield is expected because of good moisture experienced by the crops from planting to maturity. In contrast, below normal yield is anticipated in Masbate due to moisture stress experienced by the crops during their critical stage of growth.
Meanwhile, sufficient moisture and good weather favored land preparation and planting of dry season corn in Daet. However, insufficient moisture available during the month might have hampered planting of dry season corn in most parts of the region.
REGION VI (Western Visayas)
Continuous sunny weather favors the sun-drying and stocking activities of the post harvested late-planted lowland 2nd palay in Panay Island.
REGION VII (Central Visayas)
Sun-drying activities for the post harvested late-planted lowland 2nd palay have almost finished across the region.
REGION VIII (Eastern Visayas)
Harvesting of early-planted wet season corn is now going on across the region; good to normal yield is expected because of sufficient moisture experienced by the crops during their critical stage of growth and development.
Meanwhile, land preparation and planting of dry season corn might have been hampered in Catarman due to insufficient moisture available during the month.
REGION IX (Zamboanga Peninsula)
In most parts of the region, farming activity related to planting rice and corn could not possibly be undertaken due to insufficient moisture available during the month.
REGION X (Northern Mindanao)
The sufficient moisture available during the month has favored farming activities particularly in Bukidnon. Contrastingly, any farming activity cannot be done in Misamis Oriental because of inadequate rainfall received over there.
REGION XI (Davao Region)
Sufficient moisture available during the month is favorable for any farming activities to be done across the region.
REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)
Any farming activity may not be possibly undertaken in any part of the region because of insufficient moisture available during the month.
REGION XIII (CARAGA Region)
Harvesting of early-planted wet season corn had just begun across the region; below normal yield might be expected due to water logging experienced by the crops during their critical stage of growth.
Sufficient moisture available during the month favors land preparation and subsequent planting of dry season corn across the region.
ARMM ((Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao)
Because of insufficient moisture available during the month; any farming activity related to planting of rice and corn in any part of the region may not possibly be done.
For Particulars, please contact:
THELMA A. CINCO
Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD)
Telefax No.: 434-58-82