Rainfall Forecast (May-September 2017)
updated: 05 April 2017 based on April Initial condition
PROBABILISTIC RAINFALL FORECAST
Forecasting rainfall or temperature in probabilistic terms is a way of expressing uncertainty in the future weather/climate. When numerical probability values are assigned to the forecast, it is a way of indicating the amount of uncertainty in the forecast. Rather than say "below normal this July", we can say "30% chance to be below normal this July" when we think less rain is not so likely; or we can say "70% chance to be above normal this July " when we think great amount of rain is likely. Assigning a numerical value – a probability – to the occurrence of rainfall event allows us to quantify the uncertainty.
A probability forecast estimates the likelihood of occurrence of a specific event, which must be fully defined for the forecast to be verifiable. Events are defined by a time period and a specific location.
Probabilities are usually stated either as a percentage, which may range from 0 ("The event will definitely not occur") to 100 ("The event will definitely occur"). Values between 0 and 100 represent the different degrees of uncertainty.
Monthly Probabilistic Rainfall Forecast:
updated: 05 April 2017
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April 2017 May 2017 June 2017
July 2017 August 2017 September 2017