Gale Warning
Issued at: 5:00 PM TODAY , 05 April 2017
Gale Warning # 10 (Final)
For:

Gale Warning in PDF file





Monthly Climate Assessment and Outlook

Issued: 07 April 2017

Monthly Rainfall Forecast
RAINFALL FORECAST  (April - September 2017) 
UPDATED: 05 April 2017 (next update 26 May 2017)


Regional Rainfall Forecast
Issued: 05 April 2017
Valid for: April-September 2017
Farm Weather Forecast and Advisories
ISSUED              :  8AM, THURSDAY, APRIL 27, 2017
VALID UNTIL      :  8AM, FRIDAY, APRIL 27, 2017
FWFA:  N0. 17-117


Ten-Day Regional Agri-Weather Information

DEKAD NO. 12 April 21 - 30, 2017

PHILIPPINE AGRI-WEATHER FORECAST

      The weather systems that are expected to affect the whole country within the ten-day period are ridge of high pressure area, easterlies and low pressure area.

Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers and thunderstorms mostly in the afternoon or evening are expected over the whole country during the early and the middle days of the forecast period. On the latter part of the period, a possible low pressure area will affect the eastern section of Visayas and Mindanao which will bring cloudy skies with light to moderate rains. The rest of the country will have partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rainshowers and thunderstorms mostly in the afternoon or evening.

Winds blowing from the southeast to south will prevail over Luzon and Visayas and coming from the east to northeast over Mindanao. The whole archipelago will have slight to moderate seas during the early and middle days of the dekadal period. On the latter part of the dekad the seaboards of Northern Luzon, eastern Visayas and Mindanao will have moderate to occasionally rough seas while the rest of the country will have slight to moderate seas.

            The eastern and central equatorial Pacific is in neutral condition.


Seasonal Climate Outlook
Issued:  20 January 2017
FOR January - June 2017
PDF 




Astronomical Diary
Issue for April 2017
Lyrids Meteor, Jupiter, Saturn will be found at about 19 degrees above the east southeastern horizon and...




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Overview

Based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007b), changes in climate patterns are projected to have a number of impacts including possible water shortages, decreased agricultural production, and food insecurity. With these considerations, a joint project undertaking was forged between the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), the FAO-AMICAF (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations), and University of Cantabria in Spain. The project aims to assess vulnerability of households to food insecurity through the use of a tool called MOSAICC (Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change). Ultimately, climate information generated from the project can be used to provide relevant and updated climate information for national socioeconomic policy making.

The work plan was implemented through a series of workflow wherein PAGASA undertook the first step of the work plan which is the climate scenario downscaling. Global climate models (GCMs) were statistically downscaled at station level under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3). These GCMs are BCM2, CNCM3, and MPEH5.

Results of climate projections are provided in two time period: historical climate (1971-2000) and future climate (2011-2040) using two Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES): A1B (medium-range) and A2 (high-range). SRES are based on projected greenhouse gases emissions in future years.

There are three seasonal variables available for download : precipitation, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature. Season is defined as an average of three-month values: DJF (December-January-February), MAM (March, April, May), JJA (June, July, August), and SON (September-October-November).

A technical note to you understand our products is also available for download via this link .

NOTE: Kindly refer to this article for citation of methodology.

References

(2014). Assessments of Climate Change Impacts and Mapping of Vulnerability to Food Insecurity under Climate Change to Strengthen Household Food Security with Livelihoods’ Adaptation Approaches (AMICAF): Project Terminal Report. Submitted to Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Country Office in the Philippines. Quezon City: DOST-PAGASA.

Basconcillo, J., A. Lucero, A. Solis, R. Sandoval, Jr., E. Bautista, T. Koizumi, and H. Kanamaru, 2016: Statistically downscaled projected changes in Seasonal Mean Temperature and Rainfall in Cagayan Valley, Philippines. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan94A, 151-164.

IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Lucero, A., Basconcillo, J., Solis, A., Kanamaru, H., Bautista, E., Sandoval, R., Hilario, S., Juanillo, E., (2014). Recent Projected Changes (2011-2040) in Seasonal Mean Temperature and Rainfall in the Philippines. Paper presented at the 3rd National Climate Conference. Manila, Philippines.

Manzanas, R., Brands, S., San-Martin, D., Lucero, A., Limbo, C., Gutierrez, J. (2015) Statistical Downscaling in the Tropics is Sensitive to Reanalysis Choice. Journal of Climate., Vol. 28, 4171-4184




PUBLIC WARNING 

It has come to the attention of the Office of the Administrator of PAGASA that a certain person has been using the name of Dr. Vicente B. Malano to solicit money from the contractors of PAGASA.

Dr. Malano wishes to inform the public that he has not authorized anyone to solicit money on his behalf and to warn everyone against dealing with unscrupulous activities of certain individuals.


payong pagasa on android The latest version of the official PAGASA app can now be downloaded on Google play store

Weather Division is now  ISO 9001:2008 Certified
Proof has been furnished by means of an audit that the requirements of ISO 9001:2008 are met.

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PAGASA S&T RELEASE
PRESS STATEMENT
10 April 2017
               
SPECIAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE LENTEN SEASON


Starting today (April 10) until Maundy Thursday (April 13), warm and dry weather conditions associated with sunny weather will prevail over the entire archipelago, with chances of some isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms due to the Ridge of High Pressure Area (HPA) and Easterlies.

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PAGASA S&T Release
PRESS STATEMENT
05 April 2017


TERMINATION OF THE NORTHEAST MONSOON

The resurgence of the Northeast Monsoon that affected the Northern and Central Luzon during the last few days has weakened.  Latest weather map analyses and numerical model outputs indicate
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