The Impact Assessment and Applications Section (IAAS) of Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD) regularly issue this monthly/bulletin which will provide users such as food security managers, economic policy makers, agricultural statisticians and agricultural extension officials with qualitative information on the current and potential effects of climate and weather variability on rainfed crops, particularly rice and corn. This bulletin, entitled “Climate Impact Assessment for Agriculture in the Philippines”, represents a method for converting meteorological data into economic information that can be used as supplement to information from other available sources.
For example, an agricultural statistician or economist involved in crop production and yield forecast problems can combine the assessment with analysis from area survey results, reports on the occurrence of pests and diseases, farmers’ reports and other data sources.
The impact assessments are based on agroclimatic indices derived from historical rainfall data recorded for the period 1951 to the present. The indices, expressed in raw values percent of normals and percentile ranks, together with real time meteorological data (monthly rainfall, in percent of normal), percent of normal cumulative rainfall, as well as the occurrence of significant event such as typhoons, floods and droughts are the tools used in the assessment of crop performance. Crop reports from PAGASA field stations are also helpful.
The narrative impact assessment included in the bulletin depicts the regional performance of upland, 1st lowland and 2nd lowland palay; and dry and wet season corn crops, depending on the period or the season. Tabulated values of normal rainfall and generalized monsoon and yield moisture indices are provided for ready reference. Spatial analysis of rainfall, percent of normal rainfall and the generalized monsoon indices in percentile ranks are also presented on maps to help users visualize any unusual weather occurring during the period. The generalized monsoon indices in particular, are drought indicators; hence, the tables (see Appendices) together with the threshold values can be used in assessing drought impact, if there are any. It also helps assess any probable crop failure.
It is hoped therefore that this bulletin would help provide the decision-makers, planners and economist with timely and reliable early warning/information on climatic impact including the potential for subsistence food shortfalls, thereby enabling them to plan alternate cropping, if possible, food assistance strategies/mitigation measures to reduce the adverse impact of climate and eventually improve disaster preparedness.
Impact assessment for other principal crops such as sugarcane and coconut, for energy and for water resources management, are from time to time will be included in the forthcoming issues of this bulletin.
The IAAS of CAD will appreciate suggestions/comments from end-users and interested parties for the improvement of this bulletin.Definition of Terms
The Generalized Monsoon Index (GMI) helps determine the performance of the rains during the season and serves as a good indicator of potential irrigation supplies. It is a tool used to assess rainfed crops.
The GMI for the southwest monsoon (GMIsw) in an area during June to September is defined as follows:
The GMI for the northeast monsoon (GMIne) in an area during October to January is defined as:
The Yield Moisture Index (YMI) is a simple index that helps the users assess agroclimatic crop conditions during the crop season. The YMI for a particular crop is defined as follows:
AGROCLIMATIC / CROP CONDITION ASSESSMENT
Harvesting of wet season corn had just began in some areas of the country. Good to normal yield is expected in Baler, Tayabas, Calapan, Panay Island, Catbalogan, Tacloban, and Bukidnon, while below normal yield is anticipated in CAR, Zamboanga del Norte and Davao Region. Land preparation, planting and transplanting activities for late planted, lowland 1st palay has now started in most parts of the country. Standing crops in Batanes, Baler, Casiguran, Tayabas, Ambulong, Calapan, Albay, Panay Island, Catbalogan, Tacloban, Bukidnon, Davao Region, Surigao del Sur and ARMM are in good crop condition. Meanwhile, standing crops in Catanduanes experienced moisture stress; while those in Pangasinan, CAR, Bataan and Zambales were affected by water logging.
Rainfall assessment during the month showed that near to above normal rainfall were received by most provinces of Ilocos Region, Cagayan Valley Region, Central Luzon, Benguet, Kalinga, Apayao, CALABARZOn, Metro Manila, MIMAROPA, most of Bicol Region, most of Western Visayas, and Davao Region. The provinces of Catanduanes and Surigao del Norte received way below normal rainfall, and the rest of the country received below normal rainfall conditions.
The weather systems that affected the country during the month were the Southwest (SW) monsoon, Low Pressure Areas (LPAs), localized thunderstorms and four (4) tropical cyclones (TCs), that developed/entered in the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), namely: Typhoon (TY) “Gardo” (July 9 -10), Tropical Storm (TS) “Henry” (July 15 -17), Severe Tropical Storm (STS) “Florita” (July 18-20) and Tropical Depression (TD) “Josie” (July 21-22). The Four TCs did not make landfall in any part of the country. However, all of these TCs enhanced the southwest monsoon which brought torrential rains and resulted to massive flooding in major portions of Bataan, Zambales and Pangasinan. These prompted the declaration of state of calamity over these areas, based on the reports of the National Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council (NDRRMC). Several floods and flash floods also occurred in Metro Manila. These incidents resulted to the suspension of classes and office works.
|REGION I (Ilocos Region)
Land preparation, planting and transplanting activities for late-planted lowland palay had commenced across the region, in spite of heavy rains from the TC-enhanced Southwest Monsoon. The standing, late-planted upland palay may have also been partially affected.
CAR (Cordillera Autonomous Region)
Harvesting of wet season corn has begun across the region; there is an expected reduction in yield since the crops, in the maturing stage, were exposed to water-logging caused by heavy rains. The standing, vegetating upland 1st palay might also be affected. In spite of unfavorable conditions, land preparation, planting and transplanting activities for late-planted lowland 1st palay still commenced across the region.
REGION II ( Cagayan Valley)
Land preparation, planting and transplanting activities of late-planted, lowland palay had just begun across the region. Adequate moisture is available during the month, which favors the standing late-planted upland palay in the Batanes group of Islands.
REGION III (Central Luzon)
Harvesting of wet season corn had just begun in Baler; normal to above normal yield is anticipated because crops experienced favorable weather and good crop condition from planting to maturity. The standing, vegetating upland palay and the late-planted upland palay are experiencing adequate moisture available during the month in the eastern parts of the region. Meanwhile, in the western side, particularly in Zambales and Bataan, the newly planted upland palay may be affected by water logging caused by torrential rains due to the enhanced Southwest Monsoon. In spite of that, land preparation, planting and transplanting activities of late-planted, lowland palay had just begun across the region.
REGION IV-A (CALABARZON)
Harvesting of wet season corn in Tayabas had already started; normal to above normal yield is expected in the area due to well distributed moisture which will be available from planting to maturity. Standing, newly-planted upland 1st palay are faring well in both Tayabas and Ambulong. In these same areas, the sufficient moisture available during the month favors land preparation, planting and transplanting of late-planted, lowland 1st palay.
REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA)
Harvesting of wet season corn in Calapan has now began; yield this season is expected to be good to normal because crops were in good condition from planting to maturity. Standing, upland 1st palay in Calapan is faring well. Sufficient moisture available during the month is favorable for all farming activities related to planting late-planted, lowland 1st palay in most parts of the region, except in Puerto Princesa.
REGION V (Bicol Region)
Land preparation, planting and transplanting of late-planted lowland palay in Masbate might be hampered due to the insufficient rainfall received in the area. Similarly, the standing, newly-planted lowland palay in Catanduanes were under moisture stress. Meanwhile, in Albay, the standing, lowland 1st palay in reproductive stage have recovered and were in good crop condition due to the sufficient moisture available during the month.
|REGION VI (Western Visayas)
Harvesting of wet season corn had just began across the region; good to normal yield is anticipated this season. In Panay Island, ample amount of rainfall received during the month favors land preparation, planting and transplanting activities for late-planted lowland 1st palay. In the same way, the standing, newly-planted and late-planted upland 1st palay, including the vegetating upland 1st palay, were in good crop condition.
REGION VII (Central Visayas)
Any farm activities related to late-planted 1st upland palay have not commenced in any part of the region.
REGION VIII (Eastern Visayas)
Harvesting of wet season corn had just started in Catbalogan and Tacloban; good to normal yield is expected because crops experienced good condition from planting to maturity. Sufficient moisture available during the month favors all farming activities for late-planted lowland palay. Similarly, standing crops in these areas also benefited.
REGION IX (Zamboanga Peninsula)
Harvesting of wet season corn had just began in Zamboanga del Norte; the anticipated yield is below normal because crops experienced moisture stress during the critical stage of growth. Likewise, the standing, upland 1st palay have recovered and are now in good crop condition. On the other hand, any farming activities related late-planted lowland 1st palay will not be possible in Zamboanga del Sur due to insufficient moisture during the month.
REGION X (Northern Mindanao)
Harvesting of wet season corn in Bukidnon is now in progress: good yield is anticipated since the crops were in good condition from planting to maturity. Meanwhile, sufficient moisture favors land preparation, planting and transplanting activities related to late-planted lowland 1st palay. In contrary, the possibility of planting palay is low in Misamis Oriental, due to the minimal rainfall received by the area. The vegetating upland palay in Bukidnon are in good crop condition.
REGION XI (Davao Region)
Harvesting of wet season corn commences across the region; below normal yield may be anticipated because crops experienced moisture stress during the vegetation stage. Meanwhile, the standing, late-planted 1st upland palay, as well as the vegetating upland 1st palay, are faring well, due to sufficient moisture available during the month.
REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)
Because of insufficient moisture during the month, any farming activities pertaining to planting rice and corn is not possible in any part of the region.
REGION XIII (CARAGA Region)
The standing lowland 1st palay in Surigao del Sur are in good crop condition because of favorable weather and sufficient moisture available during the month.
ARMM (Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao)
Land preparation, planting and transplanting activities for the late-planted lowland 1st palay had just started across the region. Sufficient moisture available during the month favors such activities. Likewise, the standing upland 1st palay all over the region are in good condition and faring well.
For Particulars, please contact:
THELMA A. CINCO
Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD)
Telefax No.: 434-58-82