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Rainfall Forecast  (September 2018 - February 2019)
updated: 29 August 2018

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August 2018

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September 2018

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October 2018

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November 2018

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December 2018

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January 2019

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February 2019

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Forecast Rainfall Analysis

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Probabilistic Rainfall Forecast


PROBABILISTIC RAINFALL FORECAST


Forecasting rainfall or temperature in probabilistic terms is a way of expressing uncertainty in the future weather/climate. When numerical probability values are assigned to the forecast, it is a way of indicating the amount of uncertainty in the forecast. Rather than say "below normal this July", we can say "30% chance to be below normal this July" when we think less rain is not so likely; or we can say "70% chance to be above normal this July " when we think great amount of rain is likely. Assigning a numerical value – a probability – to the occurrence of rainfall event allows us to quantify the uncertainty.


A probability forecast estimates the likelihood of occurrence of a specific event, which must be fully defined for the forecast to be verifiable. Events are defined by a time period and a specific location.


Probabilities are usually stated either as a percentage, which may range from 0 ("The event will definitely not occur") to 100 ("The event will definitely occur"). Values between 0 and 100 represent the different degrees of uncertainty.



Monthly Probabilistic  Rainfall Forecast: 
updated: 29 August 2018

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    September 2018          October 2018               November 2018 
 
    December 2018           January 2019                 February 2019