Issued 7 February 2019
Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)
Climatology and Agrometeorology Division


                                        SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK
                                             JANUARY - JUNE 2019


Overview

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) at the tropical Pacific have slightly cooled but are still within El Nino levels. Atmospheric indicators such as cloudiness, trade winds and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) do not show response to ocean temperatures for El Nino to become fully established. PAGASA's ENSO Alert System status remains at El Nino Watch (since July 2018) with an 80% chance to progress at weak El Nino during February-March-April 2019.

January to March 2019 Outlook

A weak El Nino is still possible during the period with likely impacts of below normal rainfall condition and warmer than average air temperatures.

The climate pattern during this season is characterized by widespread and heavy rainfall events that might affect the eastern sections of the country, coinciding with the Northeast (NE) monsoon season or "Amihan". Likewise, tropical cyclones (TCs) are generally less frequent, where the average TC tracks are mostly located over the southern part of the country originating from the northwestern Pacific Ocean and tend to move in a westerly direction. Weather systems that are likely to occur during the season are the NE monsoon, tail-end of cold front (TECF), thunderstorms, low pressure areas (LPAs), ridge of high pressure areas (HPAs), easterlies and one (1) or two (2) tropical cyclones.

For January to March, rainfall is predicted to be below to way below normal in most parts of Luzon except for some areas in eastern, central and southern Luzon that will likely experience near normal rainfall conditions. Moreover, Visayas and Mindanao provinces are generally expected to receive near normal rainfall. Predicted surface air temperatures are likely to be near average to slightly cooler than average in most parts the country with some areas that may also experience slightly above to above average temperature during the forecast period.

Gradual recession of rains associated 1J1.1ith the NE monsoon is expected during the latter part of March and surface air temperatures are expected to increase in most parts of the country.

April to June 2019 Outlook

 

With weak El Nino or not, El Nino-like conditions, characterized by warm and humid conditions with slight delay in the onset of the rainy season in the areas under Climate Type I, will be likely during the season.

The period covers the gradual shift of the season from NE monsoon to Southwest (SW) monsoon. The weather systems that may influence the country's climate are the HPAs, LPAs, inter-tropical convergence zone, thunderstorms, and two (2) to four (4) tropical cyclones. During the period, the mean track of TCs is located from southern Luzon to central Visayas areas, extending towards the West Philippine Sea.

During April-May-June season, generally below normal rainfall condition will be likely in most parts of Luzon, except in some parts of the Cordillera Administrative Region and eastern

sections of Luzon, including the Bicol region1where near normal rainfall is expected. Moreover, near normal rainfall conditions are also anticipated in Visayas and Mindanao.

Surface air temperatures are predicted to be near to slightly above average in most parts of the country.

PAGASA will continue to closely monitor the development of El Nino and regular updates and advisories shall be issued as appropriate. For further information, please contact the Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD) at telephone numbers 434-0955 or 435- 1675.




        (signed)


VICENTE B. MALANO, Ph.D.
Acting Administrator