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A Study Of Earthquake Swarm In Siquijor Area

Melba P. Cristobal, Hernando O. Pantoja, Jr., Rolu P. Encarnacion
1987

An earthquake swarm occured in Siquijor Island which lasted for 4 months from December 1980 to March 1981 and was felt intensively in Lazi where epicentral locations were confined. The b value for this type of seismic activity was obtained applying the least squares method with the frequency of events and amplitude as the parameters.

The b defines its relation to a seismotectonic parameter which varies among regions of different geotectonic structures. It also follows a certain pattern to what kind of characteristic the earthquakes fall.

The computed b value in this group of earthquake study is 0.6, a low value belonging to the range when the activity is tectonic in origin. This study further suggests that faulting is a major contributory factor to the continuous generation of ground tremors increasing then decreasing for some period after enough energy has been released.

Statistical Method Of Forecasting Thunderstorm Over Metro Manila

Esperanza O. Cayanan, Cynthia P. Celebre
1987

Thirty weather elements observed at 0000Z covering the months of March, April and May for a period of 25 years (1961-1985), were chosen as predictors in this study. By using the stepwise regression analysis, three equations for thunderstorm forecasting were derived. The first forecast equation is applicable for March-May period and was formulated using only the first twenty-five predictors. The second equation is adopted for the month of May, using the same predictors. The last equation is adopted for the March-May period and was formulated using all the thirty predictors. Results showed that Equation 3 could be a good tool in forecasting thunderstorms if further testing and refinement is undertaken.

The National Calamities And Disaster Preparedness Plan: An Assessment

Claro S. Doctor and Priscilla P. Duque
1987

The Philippines, due to its geographical location, shall continue to contend with a great variety of possible disasters---typhoons, floods, volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, landslides, etc. These disasters have caused enormous sufferings to our people in terms of loss of life and property. Damage to typhoons and floods alone from 1965 to 1986 ranged from P 27.7 million to P 2,164.6 millions which constituted to about 0.07 to 4.3 percent of the GNP at 1972 price level. According to government planners from NEDA, one or two strong typhoons could roll back our economic progress by three to five years. It is only imperative, therefore, that the government should take a serious look into the plight of the country's disaster preparedness and prevention program and consider it as a support strategy to national development. A National Calamities and Disaster Preparedness Plan had been prepared by the OCD in 1976 after a strong earthquake hit South Western Mindanao on August 17, 1976. The Plan is now the subject of this study to test its effectiveness based on the selected factors as composition/organization, communication, test exercises, damage assessment and feedback mechanism vis-a-vis damage mitigation and people's responses before, during and after an emergency. The study also determined, based on the above-factors, whether or not amendments or revision of the Plan is necessary. Based on the foregoing problems, we have hypothesized and tested the following: (1) that the Plan is effective in terms of the selected factors; and (2) that the Plan does not need any amendments nor revision. To assist these researchers in their nationwide survey, a questionnaire was prepared for the general public and for Disaster Coordinating Council (DCC) officials at all levels to test their perception towards the selected factors. Also, analysis of typhoon/ flood damage from 1965 to1986 vis-a-vis the GNP and typhoon/flood damage table and the GNP against damage curves were used to determine the effects of typhoons and floods on the economy. Interviews, documentary analysis, synectics and other related research tools were used to arrive at reasonable conclusions and recommendations. The findings of the study were the following: (1) That the Disaster Coordinating Council (DCCs) at all levels were not much organized; ill-equipped, especially in terms of funding and communications facilities, lack of training and exercises, and therefore, they can not respond effectively before, during and after an emergency. (2) That the NDCC has not been actively involved in disaster management and operation except through an Action Group which has been quite active but was disregarded several times in the past with the creation of Task Forces or Ad Hoc Committee to oversee to the on-going disaster operations. This could be an indication of lack of awareness of the NDCC or its Action Group. (3) That public awareness/information campaign on disaster preparedness is gaining foothold in the countryside due to the immediate and appropriate reactions of the people towards disaster warnings/information; and (4) That typhoons/floods remain as the most destructive disasters in the country but damages attributed thereto tend to decrease everytime that the government enhances its disaster preparedness and prevention activities although this finding is not conclusive as other factors have not been considered. Based on the above findings, we have recommended the ff.: (1) There is a need to enhance the organization of disaster coordinating councils at the local levels and strengthen their response capabilities in all the 3 disaster phases --pre disaster, during disaster and post-disaster phase. (2) The NDCC, as the highest policy-making body for disasters, should be restructured with the chairmanship to be lodged with a key individual in the Office of the President (OP) since the council assumes a staff function within OP. (3) Intensity public awareness campaign on the nature and threats of disasters and counter measures against them thru the use of the broadcast media, which are the most reliable and effective sources of disaster warnings/information. (4) Congress should pass a single legislation, a Disaster Counter measures Act or a Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Law, something to that effect, incorporating primary elements as national disaster organization, national disaster plan, finding, declaration of a state of calamity, and such other measures as monitoring of natural phenomena like typhoons, issuance of warnings and the precautionary measures that the public should do; conduct emergency measures such as flood fighting and evacuation; measures on rescue, relief rehabilitation measures for the education and information of the population, including school children; measures for the restoration of school buildings, etc; and (5) While awaiting for Congress to act on recommendation No. 4, the Office of the President should issue an Executive Order soonest possible to incorporate the aspects and factors cited in recommendation Nos. 1 to 4 and all other aspects of disaster preparedness and prevention in the country, following the legislative requirement of a national disaster plan given on pages 51 and 52 of this study. (6) A more detailed studies on the disaster coordinating councils, communications and public information, feedback mechanism and damage assessment aspects of disaster preparedness and prevention may be undertaken by concerned government agencies and/or private organizations or persons to serve as a basis for future and/or current disaster planning by the government.