Carina G. Lao
Philippine summer rainfall, which contributes to 60 percent of the annual rainfall over most parts of the country, is very vital to the national economy. In the light of the importance of this parameter, this study investigated the variability and characteristics of summer rainfall and its relationship with other parameters. The results were used to formulate equations for the prediction of 5-day total rainfall in Luzon and Manila 5 days in advance.
Linear regression equations were developed for predicting 5-day total rainfall in the summer month of June for 5 areas lying mainly in Northern Luzon, Central Luzon and Manila. The potential predictors considered were 5-day mean surface pressure, 850-, 700-, and 500-hPa pressure heights of stations surrounding the Philippines (Nanning, Ponape and Marianas), and 5-day mean station pressure, rainfall, relative humidity, dew point depression and cloud cover of 11 selected stations in the Philippines. The selection of predictors was done by considering three basic principles, namely, physical relationship with the predictand, availability and predictability. Also, previously observed averaged rainfall (5-day lag) was used as additional predictor. These were preliminarily screened by correlation and then by stepwise regression. A 7-year period of data (1984-1990) was used in the study.
The results of the preliminary investigation showed that rainfall tends to occur concurrently in the 5 areas of the study. The rain episodes are common to all stations that were selected for the study based on a 14-year period (1981-1994).
The relationship between area-averaged rainfall and average surface pressures was determined using time series analysis. Results show that the surface pressures in Marianas, Nanning and Ponape have good relationship with rainfall in the 5 areas of study. If the pressure in Marianas is high (low), rainfall in each area of study is high (low). The opposite results were obtained between rainfall in each area and pressures in Nanning and Ponape.
Prior to the regression analysis, the possible predictors 5 to 12 days before the period to be predicted were correlated with rainfall in the 5 areas of study. Also, 10 sets of data for the predictand/predictors for the 5 areas and for 5-day lag period were also correlated and regressed to determine their relationships with rainfall. Results show that 2 (Area 1 total rainfall and Baguio relative humidity), 2 (Area 2 total rainfall and Baguio rainfall), 10 (Area 3 total rainfall, Ponape and Nanning surface pressures, heights of 850- and 500-hPa level pressure in Nanning, heights of 700- and 500-hPa level pressure in Marianas, pressures of Dumaguete and Dagupan, and Baguio rainfall), 8 (Area 4 total rainfall, heights of 700- and 500-hPa level pressure in Marianas, surface pressures of Dumaguete, Baguio, Catarman and Ambulong, and Baguio rainfall), and 8 (Area 5 total rainfall, Nanning surface pressure, heights of 850- and 700-hPa level pressure in Nanning, height of 850-hPa level pressure in Marianas, surface pressures of Dumaguete and Tacloban and Baguio rainfall) predictors are highly correlated with the rainfall of Areas 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5, respectively, for the month of June, 5 days in advance.
Utilizing the 7-year period of 210 cases on dependent data, results of the verification show that the performance efficiency for each of the 5 areas is more than 80%. Using 4-year independent data (1992-1995), the overall performance efficiency of the regression scheme conducted on 120 cases for each of the 5 areas which is more than 83% is also considered remarkable and promising.
Salvador S. Olinares
To determine the level of attainment of the objectives of the disaster program, the level of implementation of activities of the program, their level of effectiveness, the degree of seriousness of the problems encountered relative to the implementation of the activities of the disaster program and the frequency of adaption of remedial measures to minimize the problems relative to the implementation of the activities of the disaster program. The investigation was conducted in the City of Baguio and the Province of Benguet. The respondents were 300 residents of Baguio City and another 300 residents of the province. The descriptive was the method used in the study. The main data gathering tool was the questionnaire supplemented by interview and observation. The t-test statistical method was used to test the null hypotheses. The ff.: are the salient findings of the study: 1.) There was a significant difference between the perceptions of the residents of the City of Baguio and the Province of Benguet on the level of attainment of the objectives of the disaster program of PAGASA. 2.) There was a significant difference between the resident of the City of Baguio and the Province of Benguet on the level of implementation of the activities of the disaster program of PAGASA. 3.) There was no significant difference between the residents of Baguio City and Benguet Province on the level of effectiveness of the disaster program of PAGASA. 4.) There was a significant difference between the perception of the residents of Baguio City and Benguet Province on the degree of seriousness of the problems encountered relative to the implementation of the activities of the disaster program of PAGASA. 5.) There were six remedial measures to minimize the problems encountered in the implementation of the disaster program in the City of Baguio and the Province of Benguet. CONCLUSIONS: 1.) The objectives of the disaster program of PAGASA were moderately attained. 2.) The activities of the disaster program of PAGASA were moderately implemented. 3.) The disaster program of the PAGASA was moderately effective. 4.) The problems encountered relative to the implementation of the activities of the disaster program of PAGASA were very serious. RECOMMENDATIONS: 1.) PAGASA should exert more effort in order that they will fully attained their objectives for the welfare and benefit of the residents of Baguio City and Province of Benguet. 1a. PAGASA should regularly disseminate that there is a Disaster Program being implemented and undertaken in the locality. 2.) Disaster Program activities should be better implemented. 2a. Adequate information campaign materials and strategies should be implemented by PAGASA with regard to the effects of natural weather hazards/disturbances. 2b. Trainings, seminars and drills related to the Disaster Program should be implemented by the PAGASA in order to minimize/lessen the loss of lives, properties and human sufferings and others. 2c. There should be a regular meeting with local officials, government organizations and non-government organizations in coordination with PAGASA regarding natural hazards disturbances and natural disasters, especially in relation to tropical cyclones. 3.) The effectiveness of the Disaster Program should be further improved. 3a. Continuous monitoring of various activities of the Disaster Program should be implemented by the PAGASA in order to evaluate if the program is effective or not. 4.) The identified problems should be threshed out. 4a. Communication equipment, vehicles, sirens and other logistics should be provided and procured. 4b. Residents should actively involved themselves for the success of the Disaster Program. 4c. Concerned officials should consistently support financially and morally the objectives of the Disaster Program. 5.) Remedial measures should be adapted in order to minimize the problems encountered in the implementation of the Disaster Program. 5a. There should be a continuity in the implementation of all Disaster Program activities in order to seek for further improvements, developments and to minimize/lessen previous mistakes and shortcomings committed by both the implementors and beneficiaries. 5b. Concerned PAGASA personnel should enhance their commitment and actively participate for the attainment of the objectives/goals of the Disaster Program. 6.) A similar study should be conducted after 5 years.
Teodoro F. Ambas
This study attempted to investigate the factors associated with the level of performance of PAGASA field observers in data reporting for calendar year 1997. Specifically, the study sought answers to the following subproblems: (1) What is the level of performance of PAGASA day field observers based on the weather elements as follows: 1.1 skills and related knowledge 1.2 altitude toward work, peers and superiors and 1.3 advancement / promotion / recognition (2) What is the level of performance of PAGASA night field observers based on the weather elements as follows: (same as in no. 1) (3) Are there significant differences between the level of performance of the two groups of respondents on the three major variables? (4) What are the factors associated with the differences in their level of performance? (5) What modernization plan may be proposed to enhance the level of performance of PAGASA field observers? The descriptive research method through the validated survey questionnaire and documentary analysis technique were employed in this study to obtain data from the respondents. The respondents of the study were the 236 out of 279 personnel assigned in the fifty six (56) PAGASA Weather Stations in the Philippines. FINDINGS: From the analysis of data, the findings were as follows: 1. The field observers assigned in the regional Stations of PAGASA during the day shift considered skills and related knowledge, altitudes towards work, peers and superiors and advancement/promotion and recognition as factors highly associated to the very satisfactory and outstanding level of performance as weather observers. There were supported by the obtained overall mean of 3.91, 4.38 and 3.80 respectively. The field observers of PAGASA with night shift assigned in the regional station also indicated that skills and related knowledge, attitude towards work, peer and superior and advancement, promotion and recognition were factors considered as highly to very highly associated with the level of performance among the employees of PAGASA particularly those assigned in the night shift. 3. No significant differences were found between the level of performance and the factors of skills and related knowledge, attitudes toward work, peer and superiors, and the advancement/promotion/recognition among the two groups of respondents as supported by the obtained t-test values which were much lower than the tabular value of 1.95 at .05 significant level. The hypotheses therefore were accepted. 4. There were factors that were very much associated with the level of performance which the respondents considered these as the problems in the performance of their duties. 5. A Proposed modernization plan to enhance the level of performance of weather observers in particular and the efficient and effective delivery system of PAGASA in general was undertaken considering foremost the salient findings of the study. CONCLUSIONS: In the light of the findings, the ff.: conclusions are drawn: 1. The scientific, technical and technological know-how, skills in the operations of instruments, human relation and human behavior at work and the recognition derived from work were factors identified by the employee of PAGASA that greatly influenced their performance. 2. Inadequate on-the-job training on the operations of meteorological communication system, delay in the repairs of defective MTSDP facilities, breakdown of relay stations, outmodelled facilities were factors that influenced the inefficient and ineffective delivery system of the employees. Considering the problems encountered and the factors associated to work among the employees and the inadequate and outmodeled instruments, PAGASA's vision, mission and mandated functions of excellence in its distinctive competency in meteorology, operational hydrology, astronomy, climatology and other allied sciences and to provide world class capability in monitoring, analysis, forecasting and warning of tropical weather system might not be attained. 4. The proposed modernization plan for the PAGASA may serve as the take-off point to enhance the level of performance of employee for an effective and efficient delivery system to the Filipino people. RECOMMEMDATIONS: 1. Since the day and night shift field observers of PAGASA revealed that there were factors associated with the level of performance, the agency head through the HRMS should immediately organized and implemented the staff development programs to enhance these factors and to include foremost an on-the-job training of the participants. 2. Organizational climate and reward system which have strong psychological impact on the employees must be emphasized by PAGASA managers. Aside from the annual budget of PAGASA, the head of the agency or the immediate person concerned should tap NGO's and other GO's for probable financial assistance regarding the problems on adequate of instruments, delay in the release of budgetary allocations and the outmodel facilities and equipment. 4. The proposed modernization plan be implemented to the fullest through appropriate representation of the legislative branches of the government. 5. Similar researches be continuously conducted to generate data on the performance of the employees of PAGASA, their problems and solutions. 6. Lastly, the results of this study are recommended to be published, disseminated and discussed with all concerned for information and feedback.